Record warm winter all but guaranteed for parts of Vermont, New York

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Record warm winter all but guaranteed for parts of Vermont, New York

开云体育 | By Lexi Krupp

Published February 27, 2024 at 3:03 PM EST

A young boy plays with a yellow dog on a field with patchy snow. — Patches of grass peek through small amounts of snow at Mills Riverside Park in Underhill in late February. Snowfall this year has been inconsistent, and temperatures are upwards of 7 degrees higher on average than past winters.

This story has been updated.

Cities in Vermont, Maine, and New York all had their warmest winters on record this season, including Burlington, Caribou, Syracuse, and Albany.

That鈥檚 as February ended with River past snowless banks, and , breaking daily records.

Temperatures collected from the start of December through the end of February comprise what researchers consider 鈥渕eteorological winter.鈥�

鈥淓ven though the month is not over, it's near certainty [in Burlington],鈥� said Rodney Chai, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Burlington, where weather records go back to the 1880s. 鈥淎 hundred percent it's going to be the warmest winter.鈥�

A dirt road with snow along its sides, and visible snowmelt. Sunlit mountains in the background. — Mud season is already in full swing in Barnard, as seen here at the bottom of Walker Hill Road on Monday, Feb. 26.

A colored map of red and orange shows temperatures departures for the northeast of up to 8 degrees warmer than average for Dec 2023 through Feb 2024. — Winter temperatures were over 8 degrees above normal in parts of Vermont and upstate New York.

In December, temperatures across much of northern New England ranged from , according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center. In January, temperatures were broadly .

More recently, temperatures have been for the first half of February 鈥� exceeding 12 degrees in some places.

鈥淵ou're just not just talking about one day, or one week, but you're talking about the whole month,鈥� said Chai. 鈥淗ere up in Burlington, Vermont, if we add 10 degrees to the climate normal, the climate actually might be closer to southern New England, and southern New England climate would be closer to mid-Atlantic climate.鈥�

A graph of average winter temperatures in Burlington shows an overall warming trend from the late 1800s until 2024, with temperature averages changing from below 20 degrees in the late 1800s, to over 25 degrees by present day. — Winter temperatures in Burlington are warming. This year, the average winter temperature will be over 30 degrees, a record high and seven degrees warmer than normal since records began in the late 1800s.

Snowfall has been inconsistent this year, varying widely by elevation. While the snow depth on top of Vermont鈥檚 highest peak, Mount Mansfield, has been close to normal, the valleys have often been bare.

鈥淲e couldn't even get an extended period of near-normal temperature for the snow to stick around,鈥� Chai said. "It鈥檚 almost like, feast or famine. The mountains, the higher elevations, are doing quite well, but really, below 2,000 feet, it's been terrible if people love snow."

鈥淚t鈥檚 almost like, feast or famine. The mountains, the higher elevations, are doing quite well. But really, below 2,000 feet, it's been terrible if people love snow.鈥�

Rodney Chai, National Weather Service

This winters鈥� record warmth comes , a climate pattern when above-normal ocean temperatures in the Pacific change jet stream patterns worldwide. During an El Ni帽o winter, the polar jet stream typically stays farther north, resulting in warmer weather across the Northeast. This year鈥檚 El Ni帽o鈥檚 influence , based on ocean temperatures.

鈥淲ould we have been warm without climate change? Absolutely,鈥� said Jessica Spaccio, a climatologist at the Northeast Regional Climate Center. But she said climate change also played a major role.

鈥淲ould we have been record-breaking warm? Maybe not. That definitely made us warmer than we would have been, if we weren鈥檛 living in a warming world.鈥�

A hand-written sign reads "please walk to the side of the ski trail" in front of a mostly grassy field with patchy snow on a hillside. You can see a bench and a building in the background. — Lower elevation areas in Vermont have seen inconsistent snow cover throughout this winter.

Winter temperatures in particular are as summer temperatures in many northern states, according to the National Climate Assessment.

As we get further into mud season, the Northeast Regional Climate Center predicts .

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Updated: March 1, 2024 at 3:02 PM EST

This story was updated with temperature records from the Northeast Regional Climate Center on March 1.

Updated: February 28, 2024 at 2:42 PM EST

This story was updated with additional cities that could see record warm winters, a graph of average winter temperatures in Burlington, and more details on this year's El Ni帽o from Jessica Spaccio, a climatologist at the Northeast Regional Climate Center.