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Dan Kelly has spent more than three decades working at the Canadian Federation for Independent Businesses, and he’s never seen a piece of market data like the one he got last month.

A survey of the organization’s approximately 100,000 members showed that nearly half no longer have faith in the United States as a reliable trading partner.

“I would never, ever have contemplated a moment where small businesses in Canada would feel that the U.S. market is unreliable, that the U.S. as a source of supply is unreliable,� Kelly said Wednesday.

Kelly Wednesday that are trying to calculate the impact of the United States� new posture with Vermont’s largest trading partner. Economic officials on both sides of the border say 25% tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel have already begun to increase the cost of goods, and change behaviors in ways that may disadvantage Vermont businesses: More than half of the businesses Kelly’s organization represents say they’re shifting investments out of the U.S.

But they say President Donald Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric, and the uncertainty over his next move, could have the most lasting effects on the nearly $2 billion in foreign exports that Vermont businesses rely on annually.

“Sometimes it’s the rhetoric that has the deepest wounds here. And that might be harder to heal than just a trade war,� said Tim Tierney, director of international trade at the Vermont Agency of Commerce and Community Development.

Wednesday’s hearing marked the first time that House Speaker Jill Krowinski has testified before a legislative committee as leader of the chamber. But she said she felt compelled to spotlight the “economic damage� caused by U.S. tariffs on Canada.

“My hope for today is that we shine a light on the immeasurable harm that has been done to the trusted relationship that Vermont and Canada have long held,� Krowinski said.

Senate President Phil Baruth took the rare step of testifying as well.

“I’d like to do something a little unusual which is begin with an apology, and that is an apology to Canada and to Canadians,� Baruth said. “Our business relationships with Canada � are the mainstay of our economy here in Vermont � And we will not let it go unremarked that the president has wounded us economically.�

Peter Hirschfeld

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Secretary of Commerce Lindsay Kurrle said it’s been hard to quantify the economic impacts of volatile swings in trade policy with Canada.

“Because things are changing so quickly, it’s really difficult, I’m not going to lie,� Kurrle said.

She said that volatility has, in itself, become a challenge for businesses.

“Businesses thrive on predictability and certainty, and that we don’t have right now,� Kurrle said.

Kurrle said her agency has created new resources for companies that might be affected by tariffs, and the agency is helping companies avoid tariff charges in cases where existing trade laws allow. But she said there aren’t any broad policies the state can pursue as of now to solve all the problems they encounter.

“There are no levers we can pull, really,� she said. “I don’t want to sugarcoat this � there is no magic or smoking gun � that has come to me.�

In the meantime, businesses such as Renoun Skis, in Burlington, are trying to figure out how to absorb tariff-induced price spikes without hemorrhaging money or customers. CEO Rob Golden said the company, which employs 10 people and has gross annual revenues of about $2 million, is looking at cost increases of between $150,000 and $225,000, because it relies on a manufacturing facility in Quebec.

He said a pair of skis that retails for $950 now would have to sell for $1,200 in order to account for that increase. But for every $100 increase in the cost of skis, he said, market demand falls by 25%.

“That cost is going to get passed on to the consumer,� Golden said. “As a small company, that’s going to affect demand.�