Just four days before Israelis would cast their ballots, normally reliable polls were showing that a new center-left coalition called Zionist Union, was expected to gain four more seats in the Israeli Knesset than Prime Minister Netanyahu鈥檚 right-wing Likud Party. Instead, Likud won four more than the Zionist Union. How did that happen?
Well, in the final few days before the vote, Netanyahu moved into a full throated fear campaign 鈥� strident warnings of Iran鈥檚 nuclear potential; that the Islamic extremists ISIS would take over any independent Palestinian state; and that Israeli Arabs were threatening the future 鈥� by voting 鈥渋n droves鈥� against him.
To quote the New York Times lead editorial 鈥淧rime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu鈥檚 outright rejection of a Palestinian state and his racist rant against Israeli Arab voters on Tuesday showed that he has forfeited any claim to representing all Israelis.鈥�
Tom Friedman, the Times鈥� top Mideast analyst added, 鈥淚t is hard to know what is more depressing: that Netanyahu went for the gutter in the last few days in order to salvage his campaign 鈥� or the fact that this seemed to work.鈥�
These strong critiques notwithstanding, Israel鈥檚 next prime minister is almost certainly going to Benjamin Netanyahu. I say almost certainly, because in fact, Likud won 30 seats, and needs 61 to govern so it must form a coalition. That could take a few weeks of negotiations.
Still, other right-wing parties including those of the settlers, Russian emigres and the ultra- orthodox religious, could give a Netanyahu-led coalition 67 seats. And there are no likely coalition partners who will pull Netanyahu toward the center of the political spectrum.
Prime Minister Netanyahu鈥檚 re-election must be a disappointment for President Barack Obama. And in an usually critical statement yesterday, the White House called the Prime Minister鈥檚 remarks about Israeli Arabs 鈥渄eeply concerning鈥� and 鈥渄ivisive鈥� - a clear sign there will be no attempt to paper over major policy differences with Israel.
President Obama still believes a peace agreement between Israel and Palestine would also enhance America鈥檚 security interests. But given Prime Minister Netanyahu鈥檚 recent pronouncements renouncing a Palestinian state that looks like a non-starter.
Mr. Netanyahu is also likely to remain a strong, vocal opponent of any nuclear deal with Iran. The end of March is the current deadline for a framework agreement - the end of June the deadline for filling in the details.
If there is no nuclear deal, U.S.-Israeli tensions could get worse, especially if Netanyahu then tries to goad Obama into military action to destroy Iran鈥檚 nuclear facilities. For by their recent words and actions - this is what the Israeli leader, most congressional Republicans and a few key Democrats - appear to be trying to accomplish.
